Host heterogeneity and epistasis explain punctuated evolution of SARS-CoV-2.

Identifying drivers of viral diversity is key to understanding the evolutionary as well as epidemiological dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic. Using rich viral genomic data sets, we show that periods of steadily rising diversity have been punctuated by sudden, enormous increases followed by similarly abrupt collapses of diversity. We introduce a mechanistic model of saltational evolution with epistasis and demonstrate that these features parsimoniously account for the observed temporal dynamics of inter-genomic diversity. Our results provide support for recent proposals that saltational evolution may be a signature feature of SARS-CoV-2, allowing the pathogen to more readily evolve highly transmissible variants. These findings lend theoretical support to a heightened awareness of biological contexts where increased diversification may occur. They also underline the power of pathogen genomics and other surveillance streams in clarifying the phylodynamics of emerging and endemic infections. In public health terms, our results further underline the importance of equitable distribution of up-to-date vaccines.

Epistasis lowers the genetic barrier to SARS-CoV-2 neutralizing antibody escape.

Waves of SARS-CoV-2 infection have resulted from the emergence of viral variants with neutralizing antibody resistance mutations. Simultaneously, repeated antigen exposure has generated affinity matured B cells, producing broadly neutralizing receptor binding domain (RBD)-specific antibodies with activity against emergent variants. To determine how SARS-CoV-2 might escape these antibodies, we subjected chimeric viruses encoding spike proteins from ancestral, BA.1 or BA.2 variants to selection by 40 broadly neutralizing antibodies. We identify numerous examples of epistasis, whereby in vitro selected and naturally occurring substitutions in RBD epitopes that do not confer antibody resistance in the Wuhan-Hu-1 spike, do so in BA.1 or BA.2 spikes. As few as 2 or 3 of these substitutions in the BA.5 spike, confer resistance to nearly all of the 40 broadly neutralizing antibodies, and substantial resistance to plasma from most individuals. Thus, epistasis facilitates the acquisition of resistance to antibodies that remained effective against early omicron variants.

Compensatory epistasis maintains ACE2 affinity in SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.1.

The Omicron BA.1 variant emerged in late 2021 and quickly spread across the world. Compared to the earlier SARS-CoV-2 variants, BA.1 has many mutations, some of which are known to enable antibody escape. Many of these antibody-escape mutations individually decrease the spike receptor-binding domain (RBD) affinity for ACE2, but BA.1 still binds ACE2 with high affinity. The fitness and evolution of the BA.1 lineage is therefore driven by the combined effects of numerous mutations. Here, we systematically map the epistatic interactions between the 15 mutations in the RBD of BA.1 relative to the Wuhan Hu-1 strain. Specifically, we measure the ACE2 affinity of all possible combinations of these 15 mutations (215 = 32,768 genotypes), spanning all possible evolutionary intermediates from the ancestral Wuhan Hu-1 strain to BA.1. We find that immune escape mutations in BA.1 individually reduce ACE2 affinity but are compensated by epistatic interactions with other affinity-enhancing mutations, including Q498R and N501Y. Thus, the ability of BA.1 to evade immunity while maintaining ACE2 affinity is contingent on acquiring multiple interacting mutations. Our results implicate compensatory epistasis as a key factor driving substantial evolutionary change for SARS-CoV-2 and are consistent with Omicron BA.1 arising from a chronic infection.

Epistasis-Driven Evolution of the SARS-CoV-2 Secondary Structure.

Epistasis is an evolutionary phenomenon whereby the fitness effect of a mutation depends on the genetic background in which it arises. A key source of epistasis in an RNA molecule is its secondary structure, which contains functionally important topological motifs held together by hydrogen bonds between Watson-Crick (WC) base pairs. Here we study epistasis in the secondary structure of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) by examining properties of derived alleles arising from substitution mutations at ancestral WC base-paired and unpaired (UP) sites in 15 conserved topological motifs across the genome. We uncover fewer derived alleles and lower derived allele frequencies at WC than at UP sites, supporting the hypothesis that modifications to the secondary structure are often deleterious. At WC sites, we also find lower derived allele frequencies for mutations that abolish base pairing than for those that yield G·U "wobbles," illustrating that weak base pairing can partially preserve the integrity of the secondary structure. Last, we show that WC sites under the strongest epistatic constraint reside in a three-stemmed pseudoknot motif that plays an essential role in programmed ribosomal frameshifting, whereas those under the weakest epistatic constraint are located in 3' UTR motifs that regulate viral replication and pathogenicity. Our findings demonstrate the importance of epistasis in the evolution of the SARS-CoV-2 secondary structure, as well as highlight putative structural and functional targets of different forms of natural selection.

Shifting mutational constraints in the SARS-CoV-2 receptor-binding domain during viral evolution.

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has evolved variants with substitutions in the spike receptor-binding domain (RBD) that affect its affinity for angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) receptor and recognition by antibodies. These substitutions could also shape future evolution by modulating the effects of mutations at other sites-a phenomenon called epistasis. To investigate this possibility, we performed deep mutational scans to measure the effects on ACE2 binding of all single-amino acid mutations in the Wuhan-Hu-1, Alpha, Beta, Delta, and Eta variant RBDs. Some substitutions, most prominently Asn501→Tyr (N501Y), cause epistatic shifts in the effects of mutations at other sites. These epistatic shifts shape subsequent evolutionary change-for example, enabling many of the antibody-escape substitutions in the Omicron RBD. These epistatic shifts occur despite high conservation of the overall RBD structure. Our data shed light on RBD sequence-function relationships and facilitate interpretation of ongoing SARS-CoV-2 evolution.

Epistasis at the SARS-CoV-2 Receptor-Binding Domain Interface and the Propitiously Boring Implications for Vaccine Escape.

At the time of this writing, December 2021, potential emergence of vaccine escape variants of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is a grave global concern. The interface between the receptor-binding domain (RBD) of SARS-CoV-2 spike (S) protein and the host receptor (ACE2) overlaps the binding site of principal neutralizing antibodies (NAb), limiting the repertoire of viable mutations. Nonetheless, variants with multiple RBD mutations have risen to dominance. Nonadditive, epistatic relationships among RBD mutations are apparent, and assessing the impact of such epistasis on the mutational landscape, particularly the risk of vaccine escape, is crucial. We employed protein structure modeling using Rosetta to compare the effects of all single mutants at the RBD-NAb and RBD-ACE2 interfaces for the wild type and Delta, Gamma, and Omicron variants. Overall, epistasis at the RBD interface appears to be limited, and the effects of most multiple mutations are additive. Epistasis at the Delta variant interface weakly stabilizes NAb interaction relative to ACE2 interaction, whereas in Gamma, epistasis more substantially destabilizes NAb interaction. Despite bearing many more RBD mutations, the epistatic landscape of Omicron closely resembles that of Gamma. Thus, although Omicron poses new risks not observed with Delta, structural constraints on the RBD appear to hamper continued evolution toward more complete vaccine escape. The modest ensemble of mutations relative to the wild type that are currently known to reduce vaccine efficacy is likely to contain the majority of all possible escape mutations for future variants, predicting the continued efficacy of the existing vaccines. IMPORTANCE Emergence of vaccine escape variants of SARS-CoV-2 is arguably the most pressing problem during the COVID-19 pandemic as vaccines are distributed worldwide. We employed a computational approach to assess the risk of antibody escape resulting from mutations in the receptor-binding domain of the spike protein of the wild-type SARS-CoV-2 virus as well as the Delta, Gamma, and Omicron variants. The efficacy of the existing vaccines against Omicron could be substantially reduced relative to the wild type, and the potential for vaccine escape is of grave concern. Our results suggest that although Omicron poses new evolutionary risks not observed for Delta, structural constraints on the RBD make continued evolution toward more complete vaccine escape from either Delta or Omicron unlikely. The modest set of escape-enhancing mutations already identified for the wild type likely include the majority of all possible mutations with this effect.

Dominant clade-featured SARS-CoV-2 co-occurring mutations reveal plausible epistasis: An in silico based hypothetical model.

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has evolved into eight fundamental clades with four of these clades (G, GH, GR, and GV) globally prevalent in 2020. To explain plausible epistatic effects of the signature co-occurring mutations of these circulating clades on viral replication and transmission fitness, we proposed a hypothetical model using in silico approach. Molecular docking and dynamics analyses showed the higher infectiousness of a spike mutant through more favorable binding of G614 with the elastase-2. RdRp mutation p.P323L significantly increased genome-wide mutations (p < 0.0001), allowing for more flexible RdRp (mutated)-NSP8 interaction that may accelerate replication. Superior RNA stability and structural variation at NSP3:C241T might impact protein, RNA interactions, or both. Another silent 5'-UTR:C241T mutation might affect translational efficiency and viral packaging. These four G-clade-featured co-occurring mutations might increase viral replication. Sentinel GH-clade ORF3a:p.Q57H variants constricted the ion-channel through intertransmembrane-domain interaction of cysteine(C81)-histidine(H57). The GR-clade N:p.RG203-204KR would stabilize RNA interaction by a more flexible and hypo-phosphorylated SR-rich region. GV-clade viruses seemingly gained the evolutionary advantage of the confounding factors; nevertheless, N:p.A220V might modulate RNA binding with no phenotypic effect. Our hypothetical model needs further retrospective and prospective studies to understand detailed molecular events and their relationship to the fitness of SARS-CoV-2.

Epistatic models predict mutable sites in SARS-CoV-2 proteins and epitopes.

The emergence of new variants of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is a major concern given their potential impact on the transmissibility and pathogenicity of the virus as well as the efficacy of therapeutic interventions. Here, we predict the mutability of all positions in SARS-CoV-2 protein domains to forecast the appearance of unseen variants. Using sequence data from other coronaviruses, preexisting to SARS-CoV-2, we build statistical models that not only capture amino acid conservation but also more complex patterns resulting from epistasis. We show that these models are notably superior to conservation profiles in estimating the already observable SARS-CoV-2 variability. In the receptor binding domain of the spike protein, we observe that the predicted mutability correlates well with experimental measures of protein stability and that both are reliable mutability predictors (receiver operating characteristic areas under the curve ∼0.8). Most interestingly, we observe an increasing agreement between our model and the observed variability as more data become available over time, proving the anticipatory capacity of our model. When combined with data concerning the immune response, our approach identifies positions where current variants of concern are highly overrepresented. These results could assist studies on viral evolution and future viral outbreaks and, in particular, guide the exploration and anticipation of potentially harmful future SARS-CoV-2 variants.

Evolutionary pathways to SARS-CoV-2 resistance are opened and closed by epistasis acting on ACE2.

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infects a broader range of mammalian species than previously predicted, binding a diversity of angiotensin converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) orthologs despite extensive sequence divergence. Within this sequence degeneracy, we identify a rare sequence combination capable of conferring SARS-CoV-2 resistance. We demonstrate that this sequence was likely unattainable during human evolution due to deleterious effects on ACE2 carboxypeptidase activity, which has vasodilatory and cardioprotective functions in vivo. Across the 25 ACE2 sites implicated in viral binding, we identify 6 amino acid substitutions unique to mouse-one of the only known mammalian species resistant to SARS-CoV-2. Substituting human variants at these positions is sufficient to confer binding of the SARS-CoV-2 S protein to mouse ACE2, facilitating cellular infection. Conversely, substituting mouse variants into either human or dog ACE2 abolishes viral binding, diminishing cellular infection. However, these same substitutions decrease human ACE2 activity by 50% and are predicted as pathogenic, consistent with the extreme rarity of human polymorphisms at these sites. This trade-off can be avoided, however, depending on genetic background; if substituted simultaneously, these same mutations have no deleterious effect on dog ACE2 nor that of the rodent ancestor estimated to exist 70 million years ago. This genetic contingency (epistasis) may have therefore opened the road to resistance for some species, while making humans susceptible to viruses that use these ACE2 surfaces for binding, as does SARS-CoV-2.

The Genomic Physics of COVID-19 Pathogenesis and Spread.

Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) spreads mainly through close contact of infected persons, but the molecular mechanisms underlying its pathogenesis and transmission remain unknown. Here, we propose a statistical physics model to coalesce all molecular entities into a cohesive network in which the roadmap of how each entity mediates the disease can be characterized. We argue that the process of how a transmitter transforms the virus into a recipient constitutes a triad unit that propagates COVID-19 along reticulate paths. Intrinsically, person-to-person transmissibility may be mediated by how genes interact transversely across transmitter, recipient, and viral genomes. We integrate quantitative genetic theory into hypergraph theory to code the main effects of the three genomes as nodes, pairwise cross-genome epistasis as edges, and high-order cross-genome epistasis as hyperedges in a series of mobile hypergraphs. Charting a genome-wide atlas of horizontally epistatic hypergraphs can facilitate the systematic characterization of the community genetic mechanisms underlying COVID-19 spread. This atlas can typically help design effective containment and mitigation strategies and screen and triage those more susceptible persons and those asymptomatic carriers who are incubation virus transmitters.

Ongoing global and regional adaptive evolution of SARS-CoV-2.

Understanding the trends in severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) evolution is paramount to control the COVID-19 pandemic. We analyzed more than 300,000 high-quality genome sequences of SARS-CoV-2 variants available as of January 2021. The results show that the ongoing evolution of SARS-CoV-2 during the pandemic is characterized primarily by purifying selection, but a small set of sites appear to evolve under positive selection. The receptor-binding domain of the spike protein and the region of the nucleocapsid protein associated with nuclear localization signals (NLS) are enriched with positively selected amino acid replacements. These replacements form a strongly connected network of apparent epistatic interactions and are signatures of major partitions in the SARS-CoV-2 phylogeny. Virus diversity within each geographic region has been steadily growing for the entirety of the pandemic, but analysis of the phylogenetic distances between pairs of regions reveals four distinct periods based on global partitioning of the tree and the emergence of key mutations. The initial period of rapid diversification into region-specific phylogenies that ended in February 2020 was followed by a major extinction event and global homogenization concomitant with the spread of D614G in the spike protein, ending in March 2020. The NLS-associated variants across multiple partitions rose to global prominence in March to July, during a period of stasis in terms of interregional diversity. Finally, beginning in July 2020, multiple mutations, some of which have since been demonstrated to enable antibody evasion, began to emerge associated with ongoing regional diversification, which might be indicative of speciation.

Global analysis of more than 50,000 SARS-CoV-2 genomes reveals epistasis between eight viral genes.

Genome-wide epistasis analysis is a powerful tool to infer gene interactions, which can guide drug and vaccine development and lead to deeper understanding of microbial pathogenesis. We have considered all complete severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) genomes deposited in the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data (GISAID) repository until four different cutoff dates, and used direct coupling analysis together with an assumption of quasi-linkage equilibrium to infer epistatic contributions to fitness from polymorphic loci. We find eight interactions, of which three are between pairs where one locus lies in gene ORF3a, both loci holding nonsynonymous mutations. We also find interactions between two loci in gene nsp13, both holding nonsynonymous mutations, and four interactions involving one locus holding a synonymous mutation. Altogether, we infer interactions between loci in viral genes ORF3a and nsp2, nsp12, and nsp6, between ORF8 and nsp4, and between loci in genes nsp2, nsp13, and nsp14. The paper opens the prospect to use prominent epistatically linked pairs as a starting point to search for combinatorial weaknesses of recombinant viral pathogens.